What Does Peak Oil Mean?
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You can Google "peak oil" and find a whole range of sites of the subject.
Their position on the subject ranges from:
- full on doomsday predictions (e.g. www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net if that’s your taste) to
- "what’s the problem", the hydrogen car / methanol from weeds / palm oil / gerbils on steroids / choose your favorite technology will fill the gap.
What Is Peak Oil?
The term usually refers to the point in time when oil production will be (or was) at its peak for the world as a whole.
The US has already had its peak oil event in 1970 (as was accurately predicted by Hubbert in 1956 based on straighforward analysis of reserves, production volumes and consumption rates). Essentially global peak oil is the result of a given field, country or region hitting their own peaks, which they always do (many already have).
The consensus is that peak oil for the the world is about now (2007) plus or minus a couple of years. In other words, it already happened in 2005, is happening right now, or will happen in a couple more years.
It appears that the current 83 million barrels per day is the peak production there ever will be. (The US currently uses approximately 24 million barrels per day.)
So What’s The Big Deal With Peak Oil?
The key point to understand with peak oil is that modern, western civilisation is completely dependent on oil in 2 ways:
- The cheap, portable and high density energy provided by oil e.g.for transportation and power generation and
- It’s value as a raw material (e.g. for plastics, lubricants, fertilisers, pharmaceuticals and a myriad of other materials).
Whereas oil availability will soon start declining, world population and consumption is increasing. This means the impact of a reduction in oil availability will be greater, because more people will be competing for their share of a dwindling resource.
Historically, this situation has always led to wars, for example Iraq.
Ironically, as the availability of oil declines, the ability of nations to wage wars over it will progressively reduce (modern warfare is very oil intensive). More ironically, as oil supplies continue to reduce, our ability to repair and rebuild after war will diminish (take a look at an average construction site to see how dependent it is on oil).
Anyway, because oil is such a valuable and essential material in industrial society, shortages will have a massive impact on the economy and society as a whole. Almost everything we accept as normal is dependent upon cheap and freely available oil. When the oil stops, society stops.
Even at $4 a gallon, oil is ridiculously cheap given its value to society and yet we waste is so profilagately.
Suggested Actions:
- Peak oil and the resultant "energy descent" is likely to arrive soon now, but don’t just take what’s here as gospel, do your own research and find out for yourself what the impact of peak oil will be.
- Plan for how you can cope with less fuel, or very expensive fuel. If you have to drive a long to get anywhere from where you live, life could get very dificult when oil gets scarce.
- Consider locations where public transport is available, especially rail.
- Learn about growing your own food (modern agriculture is hugely dependent upon oil)
